4638
4638 Most years (with 4638 some exceptions 4638 ) I forecast predictions in 4638 January about what the approaching 4638 twelve months will convey for 4638 self-driving automobiles. On the finish 4638 of the yr, I consider 4638 these predictions.
4638 My 4638 predictions from January 2020 4638 held up very nicely 4638 at excessive confidence ranges, after 4638 which fell aside at low 4638 confidence ranges. Specifically, I wildly 4638 overestimated progress on driverless supply 4638 and on worldwide autonomy.
4638 ✔ No Degree 5 self-driving 4638 automobiles can be deployed wherever 4638 on the earth.
4638 ✔ Degree 4 driverless autos, 4638 with no security operator, will 4638 stay publicly obtainable, someplace on 4638 the earth.
4638 ✔ No “self-driving-only” public street 4638 will exist within the U.S.
4638 ✔ Tesla will stay the 4638 trade chief in Superior Driver 4638 Help Programs. 4638 [DS — I don’t have 4638 a good objective source of 4638 truth for this. Arguably GM 4638 Super Cruise or Comma AI 4638 have surpassed Tesla Full Self-Driving 4638 Beta. But Telsa FSD Beta 4638 still seems to me like 4638 the standard again which everyone 4638 else compares themselves.]
4638 ✔ An autonomy firm can 4638 be acquired for at the 4638 least $100 million. [ 4638 DS — A 4638 whole bunch 4638 of lidar companies were 4638 “acquired” by SPACs in 2021. 4638 That is not what I 4638 had in mind when I 4638 made this prediction, but I 4638 guess it counts.]
4638 ✔ Degree 4 autonomous autos, 4638 with or with no security 4638 operator, will stay publicly obtainable 4638 in China.
4638 ✔ C++ will stay the 4638 dominant programming language for autonomous 4638 autos.
4638 ✔ A lidar-equipped car can 4638 be obtainable on the market 4638 to most people. 4638 [DS — Some have been 4638 announced, but I don’t think 4638 any are actually for sale 4638 yet. Maybe outside the US?] 4638 [Update: 4638 Audi A8 4638 ]
4638 ✔ My mother and father 4638 is not going to journey 4638 in an autonomous car (besides 4638 at Voyage or wherever else 4638 I would work).
4638 ✔ Tesla is not going 4638 to launch a robotaxi service.
4638 ✘ Absolutely driverless low-speed autos 4638 will transport prospects (not essentially 4638 most people).
4638 ✔ Waymo will increase its 4638 public driverless transportation service past 4638 Phoenix. 4638 [DS — I count Waymo’s 4638 free transportation of pre-screened beta 4638 customers in San Francisco. Although 4638 this is not what I 4638 envisioned when I made the 4638 prediction.]
4638 ✘ A Chinese language firm 4638 will provide self-driving service, with 4638 or with no security operator, 4638 to the general public, exterior 4638 of China.
4638 ✔ A self-driving Class 8 4638 truck will make a totally 4638 driverless journey on a public 4638 freeway. 4638 [DS — TuSimple just barely 4638 4638 slid under the wire! 4638 ]
4638 ✔ Aerial drone supply can 4638 be obtainable to most people 4638 someplace. 4638 [DS — I think the 4638 4638 Zipline-Walmart partnership 4638 counts.]
4638 ✔ Tesla will stay the 4638 world’s most useful automaker.
4638 ✘ Absolutely driverless grocery supply 4638 can be obtainable someplace within 4638 the US.
4638 ✘ Tesla Full-Self Driving will 4638 provide Degree 3 (driver consideration 4638 not mandatory till requested by 4638 the car) performance someplace on 4638 the earth.
4638 ✘ A member of the 4638 general public will die in 4638 a collision involving a Degree 4638 4 autonomous car (together with 4638 if the autonomous car shouldn’t 4638 be at-fault).
4638 ✘ An organization moreover Waymo 4638 will provide driverless service to 4638 most people, someplace within the 4638 US.
4638 ✘ An organization will deploy 4638 driverless autos for last-mile supply.
4638 ✘ Degree 4 self-driving, with 4638 or with no security operator, 4638 can be obtainable to the 4638 general public someplace in Europe.
4638 ✘ A Degree 3 car 4638 can be supplied on the 4638 market to the general public, 4638 by an organization apart from 4638 Tesla.
4638 ✘ The US requires driver-monitoring 4638 methods in new autos.
4638 ✘ The trade coalesces round 4638 a security commonplace for driverless 4638 autos.
4638 ✘ Self-driving service can be 4638 obtainable to most people, with 4638 or with no security operator, 4638 in India.
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